Backcountry Snow, Weather, and Avalanche Conditions for Gulmarg 11.2.2015
ALPINE 3,000 to 4,000 meters – CONSIDERABLE
BELOW TREELINE Below 3,000 meters – MODERATE
Primary Problem
A persistent slab is any slab formed over a persistent weak layer, in our case, depth hoar. These slabs are hard to predict, often are triggered from the middle or low on the slab, and can propagate over large areas and across terrain features traditionally thought of as safe zones, like ridges, benches, and low angle terrain. The problem can last for weeks or months.
Secondary Problem
Wind slabs form where wind has deposited or drifted snow. You will find them on lee aspects, generally near ridgelines, around terrain features and in ‘cross-loaded’ features like vertical ridges, couloirs and gullies. Wind slabs may remain reactive for up to a week after the wind event has ended.
Snowpack discussion
The avalanche danger rating is considerable (serious) for today in the alpine zone, and moderate below tree line. Persistent slab is the primary problem, and wind slab the secondary problem. Our snowpack is 30-50cms of depth hoar with a large slab sitting on top of it that is 70-150cms thick. Skiers and riders triggered avalanches on this persistent weak layer in the backcountry on 6 separate occasions yesterday. Most of these avalanches occurred near the top of ridgelines mid slope, and started near rocks and shallow areas in the snowpack. They were all large enough to bury and kill a skier or rider.
Southwesterly winds caused wind loading below ridgelines and in cross-loaded areas mid slope in past days. There were no less than 5 wind slab avalanches reported by skiers in the alpine backcountry in the past few days. All were near ridge lines in top-loaded areas, and all ran on the new snow/old snow interface. It’s possible that if you trigger a wind slab today at the top of one of the back country bowls of Mt. Apharwat, that the additional load will be the trigger for the avalanche to step down to the deeper persistent weak depth hoar layer. This will cause an avalanche that you will likely not survive. The most likely time of day for this to occur will be in early afternoon at the warmest part of the day, but can occur at any time of the day. Likely places where you can trigger wind slabs today are on lee and cross-loaded areas of Northwest, North, Northeast, and East facing slopes. Our persistent slab problem exists on these same aspects. Our snowpack is still relatively shallow, and rocks that normally could be anchor points in many seasons here, are serving as weak points where you can trigger avalanches. Other likely places to trigger avalanches are on convexities at the apex of top-loaded ridgelines on Mount Apharwat, near mid-slope ridgelines where the snowpack is shallow, and in cross-loaded gullies mid-slope. Remember, if you choose to risk riding and skiing outside of the ski area boundary in Gulmarg, you must be aware of not only the people in your group, but also the people in other groups around you. Dropping in on top of a group below you is not ok. Wait until they are completely clear of the route, or choose another objective. Do not ski above other skiers or riders in the backcountry. Backcountry travel outside of the ski area is not recommended today. The snow is unstable. Wait until next weeks storm to bring more snow and adjustment to our tender snowpack.
Weather Discussion for 3000m
Partly cloudy today with light southerly winds. Next snowfall is forecasted for late this weekend into early next week and appears to have significant snow accumulation potential.
Ski Area Information
Phase 2 – opening at 0930
Phase 1 – open at 830
Chair lift – open at 0900
Beacon, shovel, and probe is required to access phase 2 of Gulmarg gondola.
