February 13, 2015

Backcountry Snow, Weather, and Avalanche Conditions for Gulmarg 13.2.2015

 

ALPINE   3,000 to 4,000 meters – CONSIDERABLE  

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

 

BELOW TREELINE Below 3,000 meters – MODERATE

             

DangerScale_Icons
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

                                                       

Untitled6Primary Problem

A persistent slab is any slab formed over a persistent weak layer, in our case, depth hoar. These slabs are hard to predict, often are triggered from the middle or low on the slab, and can propagate over large areas and across terrain features traditionally thought of as safe zones, like ridges, benches, and low angle terrain. The problem can last for weeks or months.

 

Untitled2 copySnowpack discussion

crown-410-cm-11-2-2015-gulmarg
Gulmarg Ski patroller Mehraj Dar holds an 3 meter length avalanche probe up to the crown of the fatal avalanche from two days ago in the backcountry outside of the ski area. This avalanche is classified as R4-D4-AS-HS-O.

Yesterday we conducted a crown profile on the fatal avalanche from the day previous. The crown depth was 110cm to 410cm deep and the failure layer was a crust over the basal facets/depth hoar. The avalanche danger rating today remains considerable (serious) in the alpine zone, and moderate below tree line. Persistent slab is the primary problem. Our snowpack is 30-70cms of depth hoar/basal facets with a large slab sitting on top of it that is 50 – 170cms thick. Skiers and riders triggered avalanches on this persistent weak layer in the backcountry on multiple occasions in previous days.  Most of these avalanches occurred near the top of northerly ridgelines mid slope, and started near rocks and shallow areas in the snowpack. They were all large enough to bury and kill a skier or rider.

If you trigger an avalanche today in the backcountry, it will likely be on the persistent weak layer at the bottom of the snowpack, will propagate very far, and will probably be an avalanche that you will not survive. The most likely time of day for this to occur is in early afternoon, but it can happen at any time of day.  Likely places where you can trigger these slabs today are on leeward top-loaded and cross-loaded areas of Northwest, North, Northeast, and East facing slopes.  Our snowpack is still relatively shallow, and rocks that normally could be anchor points in many seasons here, are serving as weak points where you can trigger avalanches. Other likely places to trigger avalanches are on convexities at the apex of top-loaded ridgelines on Mount Apharwat, near mid-slope ridgelines where the snowpack is shallow, and in cross-loaded gullies mid-slope.  Remember, if you choose to risk riding and skiing outside of the ski area boundary in Gulmarg, you must be aware of not only the people in your group, but also the people in other groups around you. Dropping in on top of a group below you is not ok. Wait until they are completely clear of the route, or choose another objective. Do not ski above other skiers or riders in the backcountry.  Backcountry travel outside of the ski area is not recommended today. The snow is unstable and not safe. Wait until next weeks storm to bring more snow and adjustment to our tender snowpack.

 

Untitled3Weather Discussion for 3000m

Clear today with light southerly winds. Next snowfall is forecasted for late this weekend into early next week and appears to have significant snow accumulation potential.

 

Ski Area Information

Phase 2 – open from 0800-1000

Phase 1 – open from 0800-1600

Chair lift – open from 0900-1500

 

Beacon, shovel, and probe is required to access phase 2 of Gulmarg gondola.

 beacon