February 16, 2015

Backcountry Snow, Weather, and Avalanche Conditions for Gulmarg 16.2.2015

 

ALPINE   3,000 to 4,000 meters – CONSIDERABLE  

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

 

BELOW TREELINE Below 3,000 meters – MODERATE

DangerScale_Icons
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.                                            

Untitled6Primary Problem

A persistent slab is any slab formed over a persistent weak layer, in our case, depth hoar. These slabs are hard to predict, often are triggered from the middle or low on the slab, and can propagate over large areas and across terrain features traditionally thought of as safe zones, like ridges, benches, and low angle terrain. The problem can last for weeks or months.

 

Untitled2 copySnowpack discussion

I’m keeping the danger rating at moderate for below treeline, and considerable (serious) for the alpine.  Overnight, we’ve received a minimal amount of snow at mid-mountain, with more forecasted to arrive this morning into mid day today.  The main concern with snow stability is the weak persistent depth hoar layer at the bottom of the snowpack. This exists anywhere that old snow remains from early season snowfall in November and December.

Northwest, North, Northeast, and East facing slopes are where there this persistent depth hoar layer remains above 3000m. Last week, we saw skier triggered avalanches on these aspects that were large enough to bury a skier.  This instability still remains in our snow pack, and is simply a matter of finding the right spot to trigger it.  Likely places to trigger these persistent slabs are near thin areas of the slab (on ridgelines), near rocks, and on convexities (rollovers).

Avalanche danger will increase today as we receive additional snow load onto our touchy snow pack.  Avoid skiing on and beneath the backcountry bowls of Mount Apharwat. View an image of where slab avalanches have occurred on the depth hoar layer at the bottom of this advisory.

 

Untitled3Weather Discussion for 3000m Cloudy with snow showers today with light northerly winds.

 

 

 

Ski Area Information

Phase 2 – closed

Phase 1 – potentially opening (delayed by strong winds currently)

Chair lift – potentially opening (delayed by strong winds currently, we will need to go for control work if the chair lift is able to run)

Don’t count on skiing the chair lift or phase 1 today, nature is in charge and we will follow nature’s lead. Perhaps its a Baba Reshi or Monkey Hill day. 

 

2015-occurrences