Snowpack Discussion
The snowpack in Gulmarg right now appears to be completely safe on the surface. There are multiple ski tracks on all aspects, and no avalanches have occurred in the immediate area by natural or human trigger in the past 7 days.
Snow pit tests yesterday by the Gulmarg ski patrol showed the persistent weak layers we’ve been watching to be bonding to the underlying snowpack due to the consistently warmer days we’ve been having. The problematic layer, which is 40-76cms beneath the snow surface on all aspects, is a distinct crust with weak snow surrounding it. The overlying snow in previous days (a slab), had been sliding on this layer. In a single snow pit at 3300 meters yesterday on a North aspect, it would not propagate on this persistent weak layer. Forecasters call this a Persistent Slab problem, as it stays around for awhile, and is hard to predict when it will avalanche. Please read more below about Persistent Slab problems below.
We will be out today assessing this layer at higher elevations on a different aspect. The take home message here is that our snow pack is unstable, and there is a weak layer that the top ~70 cms of snow could avalanche on. Likely places where this could be triggered are on steep convexities (rollovers) in shallow snow areas on all aspects. The size of these avalanches would be medium to large. The most likely time of day to trigger an avalanche right now is between 11 am – 2 pm when the ambient air temperature is warmest. Your best plan of action right now is to choose lower slope angle terrain on ridgelines.
Very thin new wind slabs exist from moderate wind loading the past two days. These slabs exist on cross-loaded mid slope terrain features, and beneath the top-loaded ridgelines on Mount Apharwat. These wind slabs can exist on Northwest – North – Northeast – East aspects. They are small in size, and less than likely to avalanche. The concern here is a skier or rider choosing terrain with exposure below, and one of these wind slabs carrying them over rocks or a cliff causing traumatic injury. Choose your terrain conservatively.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Slab – 
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Slab – 
Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab. The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
Weather Discussion (for 3250 meters): Intervals of clouds and sun today. Temperatures will remain below freezing today. Winds will be calm, with wind gusts from the Southwest as tonight’s small system moves in. Minimal snow accumulation is forecasted for tonight, with a promising storm system on the horizon for next week.
Gulmarg Ski Area (green zone) Timings for 17/1/2016:
Phase 1 – 0830-0900 SEE BELOW
Phase 2 – 0900-1600
Chair Lift – 0900-1530
NOTICE: Phase 1 of Gulmarg Gondola will be closed for routine maintenance today starting at 9am. If you would like to ski or ride phase 2 or the chair lift on today, you will need to board the gondola before 9 am. Touring up to G3 station is also an option if 9am is too early for you.
Height of Snow at Top of Gondola: 290cms
Height of Snow at Mid Station of Gondola: 81cms
Height of Snow at Base of Gondola: 50cms
Beacon Training Center on Merry Shoulder is OPEN with 2 BEACONS. Come by Gulmarg ski patrol base at mid mountain to learn the location of the beacon training center and hone your search skills and times.
Next avalanche talk is Wednesday, 20 January, 2016 at 7:30pm at Hotel Hilltop. Hotel Hilltop is located across from the ice skating rink in Gulmarg meadow. Talks will continue every Wednesday night at 7:30 pm through 30 March, 2016.