What does the scale above mean to you as a skier or rider in the Gulmarg backcountry? Read more here.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather forecasts for today indicate cloudy skies with a minimal chance of snow showers.  Mid day warming during the previous 4 days has increased the likelihood of avalanching on solar aspects in the top 100cms of the snowpack, on wind deposited layers of snow within the most recent storm snow (which was 7 days ago).  Test pits have revealed three layers that exhibit clean shears and the possibility of avalanching. The likelihood of this happening has been minimal, with stability tests not showing these layers ability to propagate a slab avalanche.  Two layers are within the most recent storm snow, and one is the new snow old snow interface.

Beneath these surface layers, there is a persistent weak layer greater than 100cms deep, along with depth hoar at the base of the snowpack. The persistent weak layer is a crust surrounded by facets, and the weak basal layer of depth hoar is something that forms in Gulmarg each season I’ve been here. Both of these layers are worth considering each day you decide to travel in the Gulmarg backcountry.  During the most recent storm, observers reported avalanching on these layers in areas further afield than the immediate terrain just outside of Gulmarg ski area (see map below), and always on Northerly aspects. As a forecaster, I think about these layers when we get significant new snow fall (greater than 30cms), significant wind events (the snow surface tells you this), and when we get strong mid-day warming periods. The most likely place to trigger an avalanche on these layers is near shallow areas of the snowpack, which means near rocks and ridge lines in the Gulmarg backcountry.

Choose to ride in groups in the forests of Gulmarg. http://www.deepsnowsafety.org/index.php/. We now have enough snow in the conifer forests above 3200 meters for skiers and riders to get trapped in tree wells. Read more about this phenomenon in the link above. It causes several fatalities each year in other ski regions of the globe.

https://avanet.avatech.com/

Avalanche Problem #1-Wind Slab

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Problem Description
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas.

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Avalanche Problem #2 – Persistent Slab

Problem Description –

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
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Weather Forecast